They’re dead even, according to one NBA scout.
UCLA’s Lonzo Ball and Washington’s Markelle Fultz are very different players. But you can usually find the two freshman point guards in the same place – at the top of 2017 NBA mock drafts. They are projected to go first and second in June by ESPN’s Chad Ford, DraftExpress.com and NBADraft.net, to name a few.
Ball has better vision and more size at 6-foot-6. Fultz is more athletic and a better scorer. So, who is the better NBA prospect?
“I think it’s even,” said an NBA scout who asked not to be identified. “Length and vision offset a little bit of what Ball lacks athletically. He’s not a stiff. He’s not Bryce Alford. He’s a little more athletic than we know. But he’s not the athlete Fultz is. But Fultz is going to have to figure it out, going to have to think the game more to be successful.”
READ: Washington visits No. 3 UCLA Wednesday night
Ball’s most identifiable strength is, not surprisingly, his vision. But the scout said it’s augmented by his, well, intestinal fortitude.
“Vision and balls,” the scout said. “When he gets an outlet and turns and sees floor, he has all nine people in view. Now his balls come into play because he’s not afraid to throw that pass.”
For a 6-6 point guard who routinely plays above the rim, it’s interesting to hear that Ball is at such an obvious disadvantage athletically. Such is life at the top of the NBA draft.
Fultz is a better scorer, by all accounts – his 23.2 points per game rank fifth in the country – and would play shooting guard in the NBA were he taller than 6-4, according to the scout. He is a combination guard as is North Carolina State prospect Dennis Smith Jr., who is another big reason 2017 is being touted as the best point guard draft class ever. Ball is the only pure point guard of the three.
Is the trio actually worthy of the top three picks in the NBA draft?
“It does depend on who’s picking,” the scout said. “I can’t see any one of those guys going to Boston and Boston is going to have the first pick. Will they be in top five? I can’t see them not being in top five. But there are a couple others in that mix. Throw (Kansas forward) Josh Jackson in that mix. Throw (Kentucky guard) Malik Monk in that mix. You decide who the top 10 are, they could go in any order. I don’t think 10 would go at one, but they’re going to get mixed up.”
Ball’s one glaring concern seems as hot a topic in NBA circles as it is for the common fan. The fact that the right-handed player shoots from the left side of his head is a problem, according to the scout. Stretching his right arm across his face, Ball needs more space to get his shot off due to a lower release point.
“He’ll be fine the first time through, but there’s a bunch of guys on NBA coaching staffs who will figure out how to take that shot away, guys with more time than Pac-12 coaches,” the NBA scout said. “It’s going to be on him to prove us wrong, to prove that he can make it. But he can’t physically release it as high as someone who shoots it on the right side of his head. Some of it is offset by his height, but when a 6-6, 6-7 guy is guarding him it’s going to be a problem, I think.”
Fultz has a particularly high release and has demonstrated the ability to make a high percentage of shots when they’re contested. He’s shooting 47 percent from the field this season and 41 percent from 3-point range. Ball’s numbers are actually better – 55 percent from the field 41 from 3-point range. He experimented with changing his form during UCLA’s exhibition games in Australia this summer, but it didn’t go well. He said he doesn’t plan to change his shot in the NBA.
With better players around him, Ball has more space to operate. Fultz is the focus of every defense. But they both have historic numbers. Ball is the only player in the country averaging at least 10 points, seven assists and four rebounds — his actual averages are 14.8 points, a nation-leading 7.6 assists and 6.1 rebounds. Fultz is the only college basketball player in the last 25 years to average 20 points, five rebounds and five assists.
Washington has just two conference wins to show for landing one of the top recruits in the country. UCLA is No. 3 in the country. But Ball’s history as a winner – his Chino Hills High School team went 35-0 last season on the way to a California state title and a No. 1 national ranking – has little bearing on the draft, according to the scout. His intangibles probably won’t set him apart in a significant way.
“You have to try to envision how it’s going to be especially at that position, but I don’t know enough about their personalities. They seem to be pretty quiet and you have to have a voice as a point guard,” the scout said. “Winning doesn’t matter. It’s also on us as a front office to put players around them. At Chino Hills, Lonzo can go and win championships, but are people walking around Pauley like UCLA is a lock to win a national championship?”
Both players leave something to be desired on defense. But the scout said that probably won’t cost either of them in the draft.
“Both better guard a lot better,” the scout said. “This is said tongue-in-cheek, but neither one of them is getting paid to guard anybody. (Ball, Fultz and Smith) can all be good defenders, but it’s matter of commitment and what’s demanded of them. There’s not much demanded of them right now.”