Salary cap math

Just a note for those who might be baffled that the Kings aren’t considered favorites for a certain set of twins, based on all the salary-cap space available. Think of it this way… Look for a chart of team salaries beyond next season. Look, for example, at who is under contract for 2011-2012:

Kopitar, $6.8 million
Stoll, $3.6 million
Brown, $3.175 million
Greene, $2.95 million

That’s four players, at just over $16.5 million. If, then, you factor in two more forwards at roughly $6 million per year, you’re talking about six players making $28 million. Assuming the salary cap doesn’t go down (a risky assumption), that’s half the payroll on six players. Then you’re talking about filling the rest of the roster (at least 14 players) for $28 million.

Impossible? Certainly not, but consider that in the summer of 2011, Jonthan Bernier, Drew Doughty, Thomas Hickey, Oscar Moller and Wayne Simmonds will all, potentially, be restricted free agents. Can you make that math work? Maybe, but these are the kind of things that give headaches to GMs when they think about long-term deals.

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  • MacSwede

    Stick to the plan! No longterm deals, no twins! (even though they are swedes.. ;)

    Maybe sign a bridgeplayer like Sturm or something (trade), or maybe sign Havlat or Gaborik, short term!!

  • iansez

    Kopitar sure is paid well, I hope he delivers on those big dollars next season. Just heard EJ Hradek on ESPN mentioning the Kings as a possibility for Hossa..for what it’s worth..(not much!)

    It’s interesting that the Penguins are probably approximately now at the point the Kings will be at with their younger players in ’011. Lets hope we have the cup then too..)

  • Deano Lombardo

    You forgot Kovalchuks contract hit at $7.5 million.

  • Cynic

    You beat me to it Deano….

    Exactly!

    Get Moen, Maybe Sturm, Kovi next year. DONE!

  • Deelo

    You are still picking up assets. I am tiring of 3 years from now having too much of an impact on what we do now.

    All the teams with big cap issues are perennial winners.

    Look at Philly…they payed Hartnell and shelled out dough to Briere…they are gonna have cap issues..but their spending will pay off because of the prospects and/or picks they will get for trading a guy like Briere.

    So although you do overspend…you can move pieces to acquire assets down the road.

    Don’t forget the Wings gave Quincey away for free because of cap issues. It is ok to lose a good young guy once in awhile if you are competing for Cups yeart in and year out.

  • PaulCat1969

    One player for 6 and another for 2-3 is certainly a better way of looking at it. I don’t want the twins personally, but if you can get a Havlat or Hartnell for 5-6 and a Beauchemin for 3-4 then I think we will be a lot better off.

  • Captain Material

    I like what DL has done here a lot, and as he’s done most of these contracts, I think people have been pretty happy (at least those who don’t make hating the guy an obsessive hobby). However, I’ve been kind of troubled recently with people talking about Kopitar as a second line center, or Stoll as a third liner or even Brownie, as I heard someone recently comment, as a perfect third line winger.

    If that’s really where some of these guys fall out, we are in a bit of trouble. If all three of those guys aren’t in our top six and Kopitar isn’t top line material, those contracts don’t make much sense. If Stoll doesn’t fit as a second line center, whose going to take a $3.6M cap hit for him in trade to play on their third line?

    Anyway, just saying…

  • Captain Material

    “…you can move pieces to acquire assets down the road.”

    Well, but there’s the problem. No one wants Briere from PHI becasue of his contract (and injury history). PHI is stuck with him.

    At the draft, one of the TSN guys was anonomously quoting a GM basically saying there was tons of top end talent available, you just had to be willing to take the contracts, and no one was willing to do that and give up a decent return for that talent to boot.

    If PHI can move a guy like Briere to make room for Pronger, you’re proven right, but it doesn’t look like that’s going to happen and instead PHI is going to have to move more depth to make the room or players they probably would like to keep much more than they want Briere.

  • Sydor25

    Didn’t Pittsburgh just win the cup paying 2 players over $17 million? Having your top 6 players making half of your cap space is normal for playoff teams. Pittsburgh has $33.8 tied up in 6 players. Detroit has $33.9 tied up in 6 players.

  • Don

    I’d wait for Hickey, Moller, and Bernier to make significant impacts before worrying about them being offer sheeted in two years. At this point, it’s a problem most NHL teams will have to deal with.

    Pittsburgh is even more top heavy in talent now than the Kings are potentially, and the Pens found a way to make it work.

  • anonandonanon

    Just for sake of s**** and giggles…

    Stoll would be expendable for another piece/pick. He’s not quite a guy with true second line talent anyway. 3rd, yes. 2nd, no.

    But, then again, what do you do with Schenn in a couple of five years? It could be argued that one would rather be good here and now than maybe good in a few seasons.

    The Sedins fill out the top six and allow the Kids develop naturally. Worth a serious look. At 5.25//, they are a bargain for true, proven, point a game, durable players.

  • jet

    It is unbelievable that the NHL did not lower the cap this year. This decision will lead to a bigger drop next year. It is near impossible to make a business plan without having some idea of what you can spend. The sizable increase in the floor is even more incredible. Does the NHL want contraction? Anyway, I would expect to see many teams with the cap noose around their neck to pull out all the stops to win this year. Many teams will have to blow it up after next year and rebuild.
    Blake’s 30% salary cut is part of the new economic reality.

  • PaulCat1969

    Jet,

    Ultimately I think the league didn’t want to contract this year as much in the hopes they could build off the momentum of last year and keep the high profile teams like Detroit, Philly, Boston, Chicago and the Rangers another year of being competitive rather than having to sell off their big name talent. Some of these teams are already in jeopardy of losing talent and rather than let teams like Columbus, Nashville, and St. Louis thrive under stricter financial times, it gives the NHL another year to gather popularity in the hopes of landing a bigger TV contract down the line or at least get enough fan interest to raise viewership.

  • jet

    Cap – I would take Briere and his contract, along with a 1st in 2010 and a 1st in 2012 for Holloway. In some ways Deelo is right, that you can always move a player. Of course the price may be more than you are willing to pay.

  • Paul from Oxnard

    I think the Sedins are foolish if they think they’re going to be able to stay together. Nobody can afford them. It wouldn’t shock me to see the Kings sign one of them, if they’re willing to be separated.

  • -J

    guess boyle made gomez expendable.

    Gomez traded to Montreal for Higgins: http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/story/?id=283329

  • Deelo

    Well…I guess you can turn overpaid UFA’s into something after all.

  • SuperSonic420

    Sydor

    Your talking about teams that have their players locked up already. The point Rich is trying to make is the Kings still need to lock up players long term. Guys like Doughty, Johnson, Moller, Simmonds and Bernier. Some of those guys are going to get big raises. So do you lock up your youngsters to long term contracts, or sign the Sedin twins, Doughty and Simmonds but end up losing Johnson and Moller and maybe Bernier as well. To me its not really worth it, when there will be so much more talent so much more readily available come next season.

  • Cry Baby

    I am not sure why people keep suggesting getting players like Moen. Do we not have enough checking forwards? It does not make sense to me. It seems to me that if the Kings are going into the UFA world they should look at adding goals not something we can address from within.

  • Quisp

    Re “Three years down the road”

    I blathered extensively about this in the other thread, but here’s a more coherent picture of what I think it would look like in the alternate reality swedish twins version:

    http://kwisp.wordpress.com/2009/06/30/new-post-in-which-instead-of-earning-money-i-decide-to-crunch-cap-figures-related-to-the-preposterous-sedin-twins-to-l-a-ufa-rumor/

  • Quisp

    -J

    But Drury is really a center. So NYR down the middle are

    Drury
    Avery
    Dubinsky
    Anisimov
    Grachev
    Boyle

  • maraudking

    I think it will be apparent that the Kings are going to have to cough up a bit more that some other teams in the hunt for free agents. But It could be worth it. I guy like Hossa is so intriguing, but he has never done well as being the #1 guy on a team, his time in Ottawa proved that. If he decides to test the market, and the Kings make a run. I hope the don’t try and pay him the what top guys in the league pay. I still think signing a guy like Havlat, or maybe taking a flyer on Gaborik is still the way to go. Both of those guys are top line talent (When healthy), and can take pressure off of Kopi, Fro and Brown. Keeping in mind that Schenn, Purcell, or any other of our young guys to develop.

  • mike

    NYR trade Scott Gomez to MTL for Chris Higgins. Its on TSN

    The Montreal Canadiens have acquired centre Scott Gomez, winger Tom Pyatt and defenceman Mike Busto from the New York Rangers in exchange for winger Chris Higgins and defensemen Ryan McDonagh and Pavel Valentenko from the Montreal Canadiens.

  • SuperSonic420

    Thanks for the 3 year outlook Quisp, you need to be Dean’s next capologist!

  • darko25o

    Look for NY to deal for Heatley now that Gomez has been moved

  • anthonyy

    Montreal just took a huge cap hit by trading for Gomez.
    The Rangers owe them big.
    Gainey better leave canada before some angry fans find out where he lives.

  • GoKings09

    http://www.examiner.com/x-1405-Detroit-Red-Wings-Examiner~y2009m6d30-What-are-the-Red-Wings-really-offering-Marian-Hossa

    Thought this article was interesting as it is a way that Detroit could keep Hossa without killing its cap. They simply frontload the contracts and have them for crazy long amounts of time then buy them out later with a minimal cap hit for the duration. So, while they really will be paying way over the cap in actual money the cap hit is small because of all the extra years thrown on the deal. Pretty smart by Holland I think and kinda a loophole in the cap rules.

    Also, I was wondering is there any way a team could negotiate a contract with a player to be for a certain percentage of the salary cap? I know the max salary for one player is 10% of the cap so is there any way of working this out so that you could sign let’s say Doughty to 8% of the salary cap whatever it will be for the next 5 years once his contract is up and that figure will go up or down depending on the cap.

  • Captain Material

    “It is unbelievable that the NHL did not lower the cap this year.”

    Well, correct me if I’m wrong, but I believe it’s based on revenue, so it’s not really so much a decision.

    “I would take Briere and his contract, along with a 1st in 2010 and a 1st in 2012 for Holloway.”

    If the market adjusts like that, who wouldn’t? Right now the first rounders are going the other way. Or not going the other way since the deals are not being made. I don’t think we’ve seen fire sales going on, but I won’t take huge issue with anyone saying that’s their prediction of the future.

    And it isn’t quite a fire sale yet, but we did just see Gomez move, so…

  • jason_bort

    Nicely done Quisp! Now can also do the scenarios for Kovy, Nash and maybe Hossa? (hehe)

  • BakoCAcameraGuy

    Who says he isn’t?

    Does Quispie’s bio say “capologist” on it???

  • jason_bort

    Has anybody here had a problem being productive at work since last week? Too much going on!

  • Garrett

    Sorry, I disagree and it’s rare, but the Twins would be a solid addition, gives us depth on three lines AND is in our price range.

  • BakoCAcameraGuy

    …But jason_bort, we are the best dammed informed Kings Fans on the planet!

  • PakiFro

    A few things..

    -The NHLPA voted to keep the Cap where its at by exercising its 5% inflator option, as it has done so in the past three years. The NHL wasn’t the reason the cap is the same. Taking that into consideration, the Cap would have dropped to about $54M, or an average 3rd liner’s salary.

    -What’s the deal with everyone’s obsession with Scott Hartnell? Someone proposed approx $5M for the guy. WTF? Are you kidding me? I agree that he’s good, but I believe he’s an average middle-six forward at best, hardly worth $5M, unless you play in Philly where everyone is well over the league average.

    -Thanks for the slap of reality, Rich. That’ll put an end to my daily speculation about who the Kings are going to sign/trade for. Now I really have nothing better to do than work at the office.

  • Quisp

    Garrett –

    It’s in our price range provided you’re willing to deal Stoll, Frolov, Greene, Johnson, Williams, Handzus, Purcell and Drewiske…for picks and prospects.

    It occurs to me that with all the expensive contracts out there, and the emerging trend of dumping big contract x in order to take on big contract y, sooner or later there simply won’t be good picks available to trade for.

    I have a feeling some weirdness is going to occur.

  • -J

    quisp- i was being facetious about boyle making gomez expendable, but you’re right he’s still going to be buried in their system.

  • -J

    Quisp- since the cap is clearly going to force teams to move pricey players, what’s you’re take on trading for s. gagne and the king’s future cap situation?

  • -J

    BTW- gagne’s cap hit is 5.25 and he’ll be a UFA in 2011-2012.

  • mrbrett7

    Anyone who thinks the Rangers won that trade, raise your hands.

    Look around…the only people with their hands raised are Anthony, Deelo and Cristobal…not even Glen Sather has his up.

    Deelo…you don’t spend 3 years building your franchise from the ground up (think of this like it was/is a brand new expansion team), only to blow that all up overnight by signing two, mediocre forwards to 12 year contract, therefor basically breaking up and destroying everything you have done for the last three years.

    We have seen this happen before. Oddly enough, in New York (both teams) and both resulted in completely overpaid teams, that were so bad Stevie Wonder could see it.

  • Bernie9

    The twins would give us ZERO grit & really that’s all we need right now. We can score enough with what we have – the kids just gotta learn how.

    …and jason_bort OMG I’m going to get fired if these NHL Shenanigans aren’t over soon!!!

  • anonandonanon

    Because saving billionaires money bores me I am not going to do any math. I am capable of doing so. I so allege. But the Capology stuff has some holes in it.

    Purcell, Johnson and the “twins” add 18 million dollars to our payroll and no one coming off the books? Subtraction is important too. Maybe I missed the exact calculation but like I said it bores me. Cap space is only good if it is used, eventually. And maybe, not now.

    I am flabbergasted that, while some are haters, the vast majority of internet posting fans will go to any length to prove Dean right. Do we realy believe that Cliche will make the team and will make 1.5 million dollars? That Purcell and Moller deserve big multi-million dollar raises because of their high level of performance? Well maybe, I mean it could happen.

    In reality for me winning a round of the playoffs would ease the pain of their loss.

    Frolov might not test free-agency, could happen, but if I was advising him I say “This is the big payday Sascha!” Flexibility is good, in fact flexibility in the cap could net 2 82 pt players for a discount. And they fill the exact holes we have in the top six. That’s the reason we’ve have maintained the space under the cap. Right? If that isn’t the reason then there is a darker side of blindly following the leader.

    I agree, we wouldn’t be able to afford Kovalchuk if we signed the Sedins, but were we really, really going to entice him to sign with another bottom feeder. And a cheap one at that. It’s the forest, it’s the trees.

    Quisp, I like your enthusiasm, your loyalty, your intent but I can not buy into that vision. Someday, hopefully we are going to start winning. Two of the top ten produces in the league would accelerate that day.

  • DetroitSons1952

    Did Alex Tanquay not take a shower this week??? Why is everyone here totally bypassing a guy we, I believe could get pretty reasonable, a left wing who can also play right, can kill penalties, can work the PP, is nothing but + since he came into the NHL and you guys are talking about guys from 5.5 to 7.5 million and up a swason. And no I don’t know what he was being paid by Montreal. All I know is, he’s a whole lot more of a hockey player then some of the names I’ve seen brought up here.

  • Quisp

    -J

    I knew you were kidding. I laughed. Just about as funny as the Ranger bloggers and commenters counting on Boyle being a punishing physical presence.

    re Gagne:

    Oh, heck. I don’t know. Gagne for Johnson and Preissing? Then Philly can send Preissing down to the AHL and hide his salary, and they’ve saved themselves 3 mil in cap space. And Johnson and Pronger is a scary defense, so that would work for them too.

  • Cricket

    anthonyy said:

    “Montreal just took a huge cap hit by trading for Gomez. The Rangers owe them big. Gainey better leave canada before some angry fans find out where he lives.”

    Cool. Reminds me of your typical DL bashing post only this time it’s Gainey. Nice to see some versatility coming from you, Anthony. ;)

  • Pat McGroyn

    My hands are WAY up voting that the Rangers won if you are talking about today’s trade with the Habs. Are you referring to today’s Rangers/Habs trade or the Kings/Rangers trade for Boyle?

  • -J

    after watching the first two state of the franchise videos here http://kings.nhl.tv/team/console.jsp?catid=-6 , I’m pretty convinced the Sedin’s are not in the cards.

    Not going to any lengths to prove dean right, but I’m glad they are aiming for the cup, not just “winning a round of playoffs”.

  • Matt George

    Please no on the twins.

    Really.

    2 slightly above average players do not make one elite player.

  • DetroitSons1952

    Ok I found how much Tanguay made this past season $5.375 million in 2008-09. He’s 29, so what will he bring or ask for on a two year contract?

  • -J

    DetroitSons1952- I agree, somewhat, and I brought him up a couple of days ago without much response. I’m not sold on any of this years UFA’s; However, of them, he might be one of the best options. Mon was paying him 5.25, but it’s expected he might go somewhere in the 4 mil range. So the questions are, do the kings favor a playmaking or sniper LW, does Tanguay have the character they are gunning for, and does he come at a price that fits with the cap plan?

  • darko25o

    Ottawa is in a much more vulnerable position with Heatley right now, than Philly is with Gagne.
    Dany doesn’t even want to be on the team, and Ottawa is set to pay him 4mil tomorrow….
    He’s just as explosive a player as Kovie, but does have the same character flaws as well. Seeing as how we are not guaranteed Gabi, Havlat, or Hossa, wouldnt it be prudent to at least make an offer to the SENS?!-t
    Give them our first rounder next year, give them Teubert, and give them Stoll, make them take Priessing as payment for saving them 4mil in bonus money to be paid to Dany, and call it a day. Moller can play that 2nd line center position-ask Giroux(Flyer). AAAAAAAAAAND, based on the aforementioned numbers, we still have room to sign some quality UFAs

    HEATLEY/KOPITAR/JW
    FROLOV/MOLLER/BROWN
    Purcell/ZEUS/SIMMONDS
    IVANANS/SCHENN-LEWIS/ORR

    DOUGHTY/JJ
    QUINCEY/GREENE
    SOD-Aucoin/DREWISKIE
    VOYNOV

  • Quisp

    anonanon-

    I think you’re missing the point. The point is the subtractions. As far as whether Cliche makes the team or not, or whether Moller or Purcell pan out and earn raises, is utterly irrelevant. Why? Because $1.5MM is cheap. If it’s not Cliche, it’s someone else earning that much or less. You’re focusing on the prospects as if what I’m saying depends on them panning out. But it’s the opposite.

    If DL were to sign the Sedins, it would absolutely guarantee a massive steady parade of salary dumps. Moller, Purcell, Cliche, Schenn, Clifford, Loktionov, Simmonds, Lewis, Drewiske, Voynov, Teubert, Hickey — they can all be replaced in my argument by

    ENTRY LEVEL PROSPECT X

    and when they come up for their RFA negotiation, either they don’t deserve a big contract, in which case they can stay in one of the cheap-ass prospect slots (see Purcell), or they DO deserve a big contract, in which case they either get dealt (see POS, Lubo) or bump someone else with a big contract out the door.

    A few other points:

    1. You say we have all this cap space, but the fact is we don’t. Why don’t we? Because the cap is coming down. Because the Kopitar and Greene contracts kick in this year. Because no matter how pessimistic you are about the future of the Kings’ highly regarded prospect pool, at least SOME of these kids are going to get big bucks during the time of the Sedins’ contracts. We can afford ONE big contract. Not two.
    2. If Frolov (or anyone) wants to test free agency, they will end up doing it Cammalleri-style. And, check it out, the Frolov/Nash free agent class is going to feel a lot of pain, because the cap is coming down with a vengeance and they will not get the money their slightly older teammates got.
    3. You think the Kings can sign the Sedins at a discount? If they’re interested in a discount, they’ll sign with Vancouver. They’re not coming here for anything less than $11MM per year.

    I appear to be saying that I am blindly following the leader. In fact, what I am doing is adding.

    (and by the way, the reason to do the math is not “to save billionaires money” — it’s to understand what the actual effects of the unexamined things we wish for — e.g. sign the twins, trade for kovi, keep cammy, etc. ETC. — would actually be.)

  • Hockey Jesus

    I would take Gagne via a trade if we can’t land Hossa, Havlat, or Gaborik. Good player, good goal scorer 5.25 and he’ll be a UFA in 2011-2012. Who would we give up or philly would want? Four times 30+ goal seasons 3 20+ goal seasons. We’ll see what happens.

  • BakoCAcameraGuy

    After seeing the Gomez trade, seems like the only trades are going to be megastar for megastar*.

    *As judged by payday, of course

    Still think you have to judge cap status in an upside-down way, not by money spent but by money remaining. I can see that eventually all teams will be paying out ‘cut money’ to some big free agent ex-player no longer in the league, but still a 2/3 hit on your team’s cap. Any mid-range salary free agent will be liable to being traded, in exchange for cheap salary ‘prospects’. And, draft picks will be considered better than gold.

    I still think the KHL is about to get a lot of mid-level ex-NHL players, from other countries than those of the former eastern Bloc.

  • -J

    Another thing Tanguay has, out of Hossa, Havlat, Gaborik, the Sedins, Tanguay is the only one to have won the cup (and the only other to have made it to the finals is Hossa)

  • DetroitSons1952

    -J, the guy has won a cup, he has scored 193 goals and has 384 assists, his plus/minus (for those that like that stat) is a plus 157 and has 50 PPG in his 9 seasons in the NHL his worst injury was last season when he missed 28 games near the end with a seperated shoulder. I for one really hope DL looks real hard at this guy, because he has a good attitude and would bust his butt. You don’t have his stats and a Cup by loafing.

  • DetroitSons1952

    Well, it seems everyone wants to make a trade rather then looking to see just what we could get just for bucks and not lose anyone unless DL wants to move some players. Tanguay could very well fit into the Kings plans and not break the bank and would also bring good substance. No one here can tell me that Calder was or is a better player then Tanguay.

  • darko25o

    DetroitSons1952,
    Tanguay is known to be quite a wuss. With every team in our division being as tough as they are, he would run into some real problems playing on our first line

  • DetroitSons1952

    Darko, who did he win the Cup with??? I think the Avs are in the Western Conf. and if you look at his PIMs, he’s no wuss, now you’re saying the guy we get needs to fight like George Parros or George Laraque.

  • DetroitSons1952

    I want a hockey player who has some smarts and knows when to take a penalty and when not to. I truly believ this guy could help the Kings.

  • -J

    darko- i’d say Phi is in the worse position. Ott doesn’t have to move heatley, and, as they’ve said, they won’t unless they get a trade appropriate for a player of his caliber. Now Phi is right up against the cap alreay and they still have to sign a few forwards and a a goaltender or two. Now that doesn’t mean Gagne is even available; more likely Briere is the one to get moved. Still, i’d expect Gagne, if available, would cost equal or less than what it’s going to take to land heatley, and i think he’d be a better fit for the team.

    As for Tanguay, that’s the first i’ve heard him being called a wuss. He played in the West most of his career (Colorado and Calgary) so I don’t think he’d have any problems against the other teams in our division.

  • -J

    also darko, if tanguay is a wuss, what does that make heatley?

  • JB

    Rich- what you describe is the Detroit model. 4-5 guys account for about $30 million then you plug the rest is w/ $2-3 million earners.

    If those 5 guys you mention that are RFA in 2011 are so good that they all deserve huge raises then you trade them or someone else to make room. But that would be a good problem to have. Hopefully the idea is we have the prospects/assets in the system that can replace those guys. (Schenn, Tuebert, Martinez, Voinov whoever)

    Hickey and Bernier are not going to be in a position to ask for huge raises w/ only 2 years of pro experience (and that’s if they crack lineup this year). And your telling me Simmonds and Moeller will be at a skill level to ask for more $ than Brown in 2 years? That would be a great problem.

    This isn’t to say I want the Sedin twins but at same time DL has to bite the bullet. Marquee players demand either term or $.

  • mrbrett7

    Yes Pat…I was talking about today’s trade.

    So the Rangers, who couldn’t score worth a damn to begin with, traded the single playmaker they have on their team…for…wait for it…wait for it…CHRISTOPHER HIGGINS.

    Yes…Gomez had a bloated contract, but he is one thing that nobody can take from him. A proven winner in the NHL, and a proven commodity, who does put up points, WHEN paired with someone who can finish. He is not a finisher.

    Watch…in Montreal, paired with a guy like Kovalev, he will thrive.

  • Quisp

    JB –

    When you say, “DL has to bite the bullet,” you are committing to a new plan. It makes no sense to add $12MM in cap, only to have to shed $9MM by next summer to squeak under the lowered cap.

  • anonandonanon

    http://www.tsn.ca/columnists/darren_dreger/?id=283179

    “Only 12 forwards have scored 70 points or more in each season since the lockout. Joe Thornton, Alexander Ovechkin, Sidney Crosby, Pavel Datsyuk, Dany Heatley, and Ilya Kovalchuk are among this dynamic dozen and with the exception of the Sedins, the average salary of every player in this group is just above $7.5 million.”

    This would be a bargain, no matter how else you want to parse it.

  • mrbrett7

    JB is right, Rich.

    It is a little different though…Detroit’s top 5 guys, at this point, are infinately better than our top 5 guys.

  • Quisp

    It’s not a bargain if no one can afford it. That’s how I parse it. My feeling is, the Sedins are worth less as an inseparable pair, not more.

  • variable

    based upon alllllllllllll the posts and opinions heading into today…and continuing…i still think d.l. does very little to nothing tomorrow and waits it out for another year…and i really can’t be too critical of that approach…

    if we can get a fair deal done for a good player, i think we do it…asset management is one of d.l.’s strongest attributes…

    it’s not that i’m against getting hossa, gabby, et. all…but more concerned about how a big megadeal could significantly hamper us for the years to come…

    everyone who says that we have to be mindful of some of our current youngsters commanding big bucks when their contracts expire is thinking correctly…we should not and can not turn our backs on our our depth/core (whatever that means these days) for the sake of chasing free agents that “might” be the answer…we need to keep the team we already have committed and focused on getting better…

    i also think that if we do give out prospects another solid summer and fall training camp, we might have many of the issues plaguing this team solved…

    so when tomorrow comes and goes and we still look like relatively the same team…if not identical to today…dont be surprised or sadden…i think we have got to get behind what we already have because i suspect d.l. & co. are not going to mortgage the future on any one free agent this year…

    let’s hope for the best…!

  • variable

    and just say “no” to the sedins…i agree, QUISPY…

  • Eric K

    mrbrett7: I’m raising my hand. The Rangers just got a massive bailout. Gomez is good, but he isn’t $7 million good. And the Canadiens also gave up Ryan McDonagh, Montreal’s 1st rounder in 2007 and a solid defense prospect. The Rangers got cap relief, and they did it losing a guy who is undersized and (as you said) doesn’t really do well unless paired with great players. And Higgins is five years younger and will get 20-25 goals consistently, at a third of the price. Add in Heatley (maybe) or the FA or FAs that New York has room for now, and NY definitely won.

    Anthony’s got this one right.

  • darko25o

    J, and DETROITSON,
    Do you both even realize the reason he didn’t pan out in Calgary…or the reason he had so many healthy scratches?!!!!!!!
    “now you’re saying the guy we get needs to fight like George Parros or George Laraque.”-DETROITSON
    No, I’m not saying that! Where was that in my post?
    I’m saying that Tanguay isn’t a DL type of player, judging by our previous pick ups and drafts…insinuating is a dangerous practice, and DONT PUT WORDS IN MY MOUTH. Just like you and J imply that he is tough based on the fact that he played on Colorado, and won a cup.
    “also darko, if tanguay is a wuss, what does that make heatley?”-J
    What are you talking about????….
    Whens the last time Heatley was a healthy scratch, let alone scratched for being soft?!
    You two sure have an interesting way of supporting your claims….

  • LBlocal

    Found this DL 1-hour audio interview @ LGK made just before Montreal. Maybe this has already been shared through another thread.. (not sure)

    http://www.letsgokings.com/bbs/f4/audio_hour_long_lombardi_interview-121120.html

    A GREAT listen, a drab interviewer (at best), but very much.. ‘Classic Deano’.

    Go Kings!

  • mike

    Jay Bouwmeester just signed a 5-year deal in Calgary worth 6.6 mil. Against the cap per year

  • jet

    Paulcat – you make a very good point. I would question the risk/reward analysis of the league. I do not see as many owners willing to dump 10M/year. Maybe there needs to be a bigger hit to the top spenders.

    PakiFro – I can not see the players association risking a contraction of teams (loss of players) or another strike to have the players pick up another $900,000. I can see how the league may want to help the dynasties and the Canadian teams though.

  • TeamHasHoles

    Mike Komisarek! Book it! :-P

  • -J

    darko- healthy scratches???? Tanguay missed 5 games in two years for Calgary, for injuries including a broken toe and a neck strain. And he only missed one game for that broken toe. What a wuss.

    It seems like you just make stuff up to support your claims- i couldn’t even find one reference indicating he’s been a healthy scratch.

  • Naturallawyer

    It’s pretty obvious that if the Sedins are signed, Stoll has to be traded, probably to a team that needs help on the powerplay. You don’t pay $3.6 million (Stoll) or $4 million (Handzus) for third and fourth line centers.

  • darko25o

    Keenan, in 2007, was toying with the idea of moving Dion Phaneuf to LW as a result of Alex and Kristian’s poor play:
    http://www.fanhouse.com/tag/AlexTanguay/
    I agree, he’s an awesome talent, but I just dont think he fits the mold that DL is trying to construct with the Kings

  • anonandonanon

    10.5 is not 12 or 14.

    Two top-ten forwards. Two. Not 7.5, 5.25.

    The cap space should make you flexible. What many continue to propound is lockstep, rigid and only looks at a tiny portion of what may or may not happen now or in the future. The “right way”? The “Plan”? It isn’t fundamentalist religion, it’s hockey. There’s more than one way to do this. As proved by the fact that there are teams that spend and contend. They get players and move players and rarely lose players for nothing. They play in games that mean something. The Ducks play in games that mean something for pity sake. I want that, not a butcher’s bill for another in a long series of failed promises.

    Is some hybrid out of the question? Good players at a fair price within the means. Maximizing the performance that our home grown guys will put forth. No more wounded 5 million dollar public relations boondoggles that end up playing 10 times as hard for a rival. Solid honest hockey moves and less philosophic discourse. Win, and do what it takes to win. Whether getting players or holding players or refusing to spend on damaged or overpriced goods. I think the Sedins give that honest, high level game and would improve our team immensely. Disagree about that, not the economy. But if we can’t find that solid pick-up that makes this team better at a good price then, of course, you don’t buy another pig in a poke. Or pretend every prospect is a bona fide star in the making.

  • Ersberg

    The Sedins are a terrible idea. They aren’t coming to LA. Ever.

    The Hossa rumors I can ‘somewhat’ buy, but I don’t think he’s coming here, either.

    It’s either Gaborik or a second-tier guy.

  • Quisp

    anon –

    Last I heard, the Sedins were asking for $6MM/year each for 10 or 12 years, I forget which. That’s $12MM/year. We don’t have the cap space for that. You’re talking about cap figures like there’s some kind of option available. There isn’t. If you are over the cap, you are not allowed to ice a team. Period.

    re: “The cap space should make you flexible.”

    Which part of the-cap-is-likely-to-go-down-to-$48-or-50-million next summer did you not understand? If the Kings simply re-sign their RFAs, they will be sitting at something like $46MM, a little more if Hickey cracks the line-up. Teams that, a year from now, are at the ceiling (and the Kings might be one of those teams) are going to have to make moves like Philly and NYR are needing to make now, to shed salary at a deep discount.

    Stop and think about it. There are only thirty teams. At least half of those teams are going to be in a very painful position of needing to dump salary in a hurry. They have to trade with SOMEONE. The rest of the teams, the ones that aren’t dumping salary, some of them will be in a position to take on salary, and some will merely stand pat. This means there are going to be something like 15 teams trying to trade with a very small number of teams. If you think you can get Gomez at a discount now, wait until next summer when there are a dozen Gomezs and only five teams that can squeeze him in.

    You can think about it or not think about it, to suit yourself. But to say that the cap is going down in a year is neither “lockstep” nor “rigid” any more than it is “lockstep” or “rigid” to think that, for example, several hundred thousand foreclosures will in fact cause housing prices to fall. Revenues are down. They will be down this year. That will be reflected in the cap next summer.

    The NHL already knows what attendance is going to be like this year, based on season ticket renewals and a whole host of other yard-sticks. And it’s now taken for granted by everyone that the cap is going to take a big hit next year, to reflect the general crappiness of the economy.

    I have a feeling that you use the words “lockstep” and “fundamentalist” and “religion” to discredit me by suggesting I am blindly following the Church of Dean Lombardi. Of course, were that the case, little things like numbers, addition and subtraction — you know, facts — would get in my way. Instead, you are the one who is “bored” by doing the math, etc., and who can’t be bothered to “help billionaires save money.” So you’re not on the side of Big Money. Congratulations.

    You said, “there’s more than one way to do this.” So, so true. You say there are teams that “spend and contend.” Also true. In San Jose, they’re calling for a total rebuild. Calgary couldn’t even ice a full roster for much of the second half of the season, because they mismanaged their cap space. (Calgary, at this moment, has about $4MM of cap space with 7 players to sign; good luck with that.) Philly, NYR, they’re making trades from a position of weakness, and it’s only going to get worse for them.

    And I’ve been saying for literally the last six months that there is no way Holland can sign Hossa in Detroit without dismantling the team. The response I usually get is, “oh Holland will work his magic” or “there are ways,” as if it was something more than ADDITION. And lo and behold, I was right. And you have Ken Holland saying, there will never be a Wings team as good as this one. Ta da.

    Yes, the Ducks played two rounds of playoffs this year. And they had to trade their captain because they couldn’t afford to pay him.

    “I think the Sedins give that honest, high level game and would improve our team immensely. Disagree about that, not the economy.”

    I don’t think the Sedins are worth it. So I do disagree about that. But, sorry, the economy is a huge part of what’s going to make or break this team, and every team. You can choose to ignore it, but a GM does so at his own peril.

    And I worry about it because I don’t want my team to continue to suck. And I don’t want to see the players I like dealt away because we have a giant pair of Swedish twin albatrosses we have to pay until 2021.

    “…Or pretend every prospect is a bona fide star in the making.”

    You’re criticizing a straw man. Nobody is pretending that every prospect is a star in the making. The Kings aren’t. I don’t think anyone here is. I’m not. As I said earlier, it doesn’t matter which prospect you plug into the roster, the point is they’re cheap. Either they crap out or they don’t. But some of them are going to pan out, and then you’re going to have to pay them. It hardly makes sense to put yourself in a position where, if you do your job and develop your prospects into legitimate NHL-ers, you must immediately get rid of them because of the cap.

    You have to plan.

    I know you wish that you could ignore all that and just “spend and contend” and worry about the consequences later. Yes, we’ll fix it after we win the cup. Or, more likely, the next guy will fix it after I get fired. But wishing we were back in the pre-cap era does not make it so. And that’s but one of the reasons on the Rangers blogs they are even now commonly referring to Sather as “the retard.”

    I would prefer to avoid that, if possible.

  • variable

    anonandonanon…

    i think when you look at who’s out there versus “the plan” or the “right way”, why would d.l. think any differently than not to make a move if it didn’t serve a positive (here’s another one for ya’) “forward progression” towards d.l.’s way of winning…???

    look…

    i’m still willing to listen to d.l. and give him a chance/benefit of a doubt until he has taken a significant step in the wrong direction…the bone-head free agent signings of the past were mostly (if not all) his fault…

    and that’s my whole point….

    if d.l. has a weakness, it’s his lengthy track record of not signing the right free agents…that does worry me…

    so if his strength and plan is to build from within the organization, why wouldn’t he continue to do it…?

    if he knows that it’s high-time for his plan, regardless if he signs a free agent or not, the kids he picked (picks) have to step it up and play…all the players d.l. went out and got in the past have been…well…pluggers…bridge players…calder, preissing, (let’s face it folks) zus, nagy, cloutier, mccauley, etc…

    each one of those free agents were all busts (except for zus, who has significant trade value come deadline, if needed), why wouldn’t d.l want to be the most cautious he’s ever been in signing a free agent…?

    that’s why he’s going make sure he’s got it right…he has to…he knows it…that’s why the next “big” move is that much more important for him and us…the future of the kings for the next 5+ seasons…

    this is why i’m patient in these matters….because d.l. has this “belief”…i like some of the things he says and i believe, since he’s been as consistent a GM there is in this league, he deserves to see his plan through…

    i want a top scorer…i would be happier than a drunk w/stolen credit card at bevmo if we were to land one…
    but i don’t want it to come at a huge expense…and if it does, that would be a significant misstep for d.l. and co….and be inconsistent to how he wants to build this team – from within and w/draft picks…

    - hossa is going to cost us money…and perhaps frolov…how is that going to play out if a deal is reached that affects other “core” players…? this is a big-time player…no doubt…but if it doesn’t work…and it didn’t work in detroit and look at what they have…why will it be better than the red wings…? the penguins…? are we going to be a cup contender w/hossa…? i don’t know…it’s a gamble…and perhaps too big for d.l…

    - the sedin twins to me, are financial suicide…you could put vinny in this department, too…they have peaked or near it…i’m not saying they can’t bring it and make us a better team…but i do think it would be efficient to compete at the $10-14mil/per year combined hit vs. the cap level…are these twins really a franchise duo…?

    - gabby…gabby…gabby…
    i like him…he’s the firework you were told not to play with…but it’s a big risk and i’m not sure he’s not going to be another ziggy palffy…and that implies all that it should…again…is he a franchise player…? when healthy, yes…but the team dr.’s are always on standby…

    - antropov…
    i put him here after today’s bargain sale of the century…$5.5mil/per…
    what’s russian for “!#*!*, please!!!”

    - heatley…
    really, do we want a guy who’s character has come into question more than once…?
    i think when you killed someone…a friend and a teammate…like dan snyder was…you can never fully get over it…i seriously have my doubts about heater psychologically because of his actions with both his teams…look how the unfortunate actions of todd bertuzzi have affected his career/potential…? and heater killed someone…his lack of commitment towards a team-concept screams for d.l. to stay far away from him as possible…

    i think ilya kovalchuk is the right player for this team…we just might have to wait another year for it to happen…and i thought the minor moves d.l. made during the draft w/the thrash might be a sign of things to come…let’s hope so…because i think he would be the right guy at the right time for us…

  • variable

    QUISP…

    jinx…!

  • -J

    darko- Tanguay had a slow start to the season that year so I would expect him to be in the doghouse, but what player doesn’t go through slumps? There isn’t anything really on that page that talks about Tanguay being soft. Check this out from later in that year from Calgary’s GM: http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/trade_deadline/2008/02/25/sutter_tanguay/

    I agree that he probably isn’t a DL-type player, though as Sutter said, he is one of the top LW in the league, and the Kings do need one, badly.

  • darko25o

    J,
    “he is one of the top LW in the league, and the Kings do need one, badly.”
    Couldn’t agree with you more!

  • -J

    darko- if the kings could get any LW they wanted (and who would potentially be available i.e. was would never trade ovechkin) who would you want?

  • PakiFro

    Jet –

    Not trying to argue with your logic of the NHL wanting keep some of the big name teams successful, but I didnt just make that 5% figure up…

    http://www.google.com/hostednews/canadianpress/article/ALeqM5hz8NtGtUhttnNGZHFirOdZgA02FQ

  • JB

    Quisp- my point I think was less directed at DL changing the plan and more at Rich’s point that those guys he list will be RFAs in 2 years. We’ll always have some group of guys that we’ll have to worry about resiging in a couple years.

    But I doubt that group Rich mentions is going to be in a position to demand 5-7 million. If Simmonds, Moeller, Williams become 40+ goal scorers maybe.

    At some poin DL (maybe not this year) will have to sign a marquee guy and it’s not going to make things easier for him in long term.

    But to speculate that the cap will drop to $48 million seems a stretch. As you say that would put a lot of teams in trouble. And since its the players and the league that set the cap at best I see it staying flat. It’s not in players or owner’s interests to create the chaos of dropping cap to $48 million.

    If DL is betting on cap dropping that much lets think about what would cause the cap to drop. As you say attendance would need to plummet. WHere is that more likely to happen? In Calgary, Montreal, Pittsuburgh where teams are good or here in LA, Phoenix, Tampa, Florida where teams are struggling? So if DL is betting on cap to drop so that he can go to Uncle Phil to buy a bunch of guys that other teams need to unload I have one thing to say. Start looking for a new job Dean.

  • jet

    PakiFro – I also am not trying to be argumentative. I just think that the real decision was made by the league to put a pretty picture on the real financial situation and to help the Canadian team (most of which can go maxcap). I do not believe the majority of players would want to risk the jobs. But, the players do not have the power right now. They can not even get head shots banned.

    JB – Do you believe Carolina, Fla, TB, Phx, Kings, NYI, Columbus and Nashville will still be around if the cap/floor increases next year?

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