Daily Distractions: Why Zack Greinke probably won’t dive tonight.

Zack Greinke

Maybe the only way Zack Greinke hits the turf is if he’s pulled down. (Associated Press photo)

Zack Greinke can recall diving exactly once on a baseball field. All he remembered Tuesday was that it was on a bunt attempt by Gerald Laird, maybe in 2009, and it didn’t end well for him or the Kansas City Royals.

After some digging, we believe the play occurred in the second inning of a game between the Royals and Detroit Tigers on July 8, 2009. Josh Anderson was on second base, having hit a ground-rule double. Laird attempted to bunt Anderson to third base but popped the ball up toward the pitcher’s mound.

Greinke dove for the ball and missed. He tried throwing to first base to retire Laird, but Laird wound up with a single. Since there’s no video on YouTube or MLB.com, we’ll rely on this descriptive quote from Greinke, courtesy of that night’s Associated Press game story: “That was a stupid play, because it was a terrible bunt. If I catch that, it is a double play, and even then, I made a five-hop throw to first.”

On Tuesday, Greinke said that he could have caught the ball, and turned the double play, if he didn’t dive.

“I feel at least 90 percent of all dives are unneeded,” he added.

Why is all this relevant? Well, Greinke is under strict orders not to dive tonight when he returns from a fractured clavicle to start against the Washington Nationals. The pitcher assured Dodgers manager Don Mattingly that this wouldn’t be a problem, and the play from four years ago is a large reason why.

Also, it was satisfying to uncover the dive Greinke was referring to, like the guy who figured out what day Ice Cube was rapping about in the song “It Was a Good Day.”

Some Hump Day bullet points:
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Zack Greinke will start for the Dodgers on Wednesday.

Zack GreinkeThe Dodgers will activate Zack Greinke from the disabled list, and the right-hander will start tomorrow’s game against the Washington Nationals less than five weeks after he had a metal plate inserted in his fractured left clavicle.

Greinke made only one rehab start last Friday and threw 80 pitches for Single-A Rancho Cucamonga. The outing didn’t go well on paper — he allowed six hits, three earned runs and lasted just 4 1/3 innings — but Greinke said he’s comfortable pitching a major-league game three weeks ahead of the original timetable. The team’s medical staff concurred.

“There is some risk,” Greinke said. “There’s risk starting [Clayton] Kershaw today. I’m sure on our team there’s a lot of risk every day. I think it’s well worth the risk we’re taking for my situation.

“If our medical people thought I shouldn’t be pitching, I’d be OK with it. If I had a problem with how I’m pitching I’d be in the minor leagues.”
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Dodgers’ Zack Greinke won’t pitch in Albuquerque. But where will he pitch?

Zack Greinke Carlos Quentin

Zack Greinke hasn’t pitched for the Dodgers since he fractured his clavicle in this brawl on April 11 in San Diego. He’s still a possibility to return Wednesday. (Associated Press)

The coaches, managers and physicians may know where Zack Greinke is pitching on Wednesday, but it remained a state secret as of Monday afternoon. Greinke will either come off the disabled list to start against the Washington Nationals or make another rehabilitation start, likely for Single-A Rancho Cucamonga, with Matt Magill starting for the Dodgers.

“We don’t want to wait too long” to announce where Greinke will pitch, Dodgers manager Don Mattingly said, “we just want to make sure everybody’s on the same page, getting Ned’s input, Doc’s input, trainer’s input, Zack’s putting together what he — if he’s going to be able to pitch, what are the things we want him doing, we don’t want him doing. We just haven’t gotten all that together. So we’re not ready to say.”

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Daily Distractions: Going to WAR over the Dodgers’ worst position.

Nick Punto

Is infielder Nick Punto part of the Dodgers’ solution or part of the problem? (Getty Images)

What has been the least productive position for the Dodgers this season? Third base? Shortstop?

Guess again.

FanGraphs.com recently calculated the WAR (wins above replacement) for every team by position. (For an explanation of the frequently misunderstood statistic, which is calculated differently by FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference.com and has gained popularity in recent years, click here.) According to FanGraphs’ WAR, second base has been the least productive position for the Dodgers this year.

In fact, only five teams have gotten less out of the position than the Dodgers, in terms of offense, baserunning and defense. Mark Ellis (17), Nick Punto (10) and Skip Schumaker (6) are the only three Dodgers who have started games at second base this season.

The Dodgers’ best position, relatively speaking, is first base. Only the Reds and Tigers have gotten more WAR out of the position this season.

The chart has its limits. Take the Angels, for example. Add up their position-by-position WAR, and they should have the fourth-best team in baseball. In reality the Angels are 10 games under .500. The Baltimore Orioles are tied for first place in the American League East, yet their combined WAR ranks 21st in the majors.

This is why you play the games.

More bullet points for a Thursday morning:
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Daily Distractions: Zack Greinke on mano-a-mano death matches; is Don Mattingly safe?

Zack Greinke Carlos Quentin

Dodgers pitcher Zack Greinke is not in favor of mano-a-mano fights to the death. (Getty Images)

The beautiful thing about interviewing Zack Greinke is you never know what he’ll say next. Clichés are not his forte.

Tuesday, Greinke was asked for his thoughts on eliminating benches-clearing brawls, like the one that led him to fracture his collarbone in San Diego, by banning players from leaving the bench/bullpen during a fight on the field. His response:

“That’s above me, for one. I think it’s part of the game, or it has been forever. Any rule changes, there’s going to be something that could backfire in a different way. Say we’re not allowed to do anything, is there a different way you could go about it? So you get into a fight and it’s just one-on-one until one person dies? The umpires aren’t going to do much.

“It’s not like these brawls where people are coming off the benches are bringing weapons out. Most of the people coming out of the dugout are there to calm things down, not encourage it.”

Greinke, for the record, is not in favor of one-on-one fights to the death.

Some bullet points for a Wednesday morning:
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Dodgers pitcher Zack Greinke nearing his first rehabilitation assignment.

Zack GreinkeZack Greinke threw approximately 60 pitches in the Dodgers’ bullpen today and seems to be making progress toward his first rehabilitation assignment. Dodgers manager Don Mattingly said that Greinke touched 90 mph on the radar gun.

“I don’t know how I’d be throwing more than 100 pitches,” Greinke said, “but throwing 50 to 75 should be pretty easy at this point, if that was the case.”

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Injury updates: Chris Capuano, Zack Greinke, Mark Ellis.

Chris Capuano continued to throw Monday at Dodger Stadium and is expected to start for the Albuquerque Isotopes on Wednesday. It’s the only rehab start Capuano is expected to make before he is activated from the disabled list. The left-hander strained his left calf covering first base on April 16.

Zack Greinke threw off flat ground from approximately 90-100 feet Monday as he continued his rehab from a fractured left clavicle. The right-hander said he’s still “just a little bit” sore 16 days after undergoing surgery to have a stabilizing metal plate inserted in the area of the clavicle: “I’m a little achy here and there.”

Greinke hasn’t swung a bat yet, saying “it’s not worth the risk,” and even cracked a joke about his swing. “It was already bad.”

Second baseman Mark Ellis is no closer to playing in a game, or being placed on the disabled list, since straining his right quadriceps on Friday. Ellis jogged a little bit Monday, said Dodgers manager Don Mattingly, who’s willing to play short-handed for now.

“We’ve played short before,” Mattingly said. “You can do it. Sometimes you may get 10 games. We just need to be creative and be careful with players early in the game. You can’t burn guys.”

Reinstating Hanley Ramirez from the 15-day disabled list Monday gave the Dodgers an extra infielder off the bench for Monday night’s game against the Colorado Rockies.

With Ellis, Mattingly said, “it’s more of a medical decision than a baseball decision right now.”

Daily Distractions: The Dodgers’ pitching depth could be worse.

Ted Lilly

Ted Lilly makes his 2013 debut today against the New York Mets. (Getty Images)

When Ted Lilly starts tonight, the Dodgers will have used eight starters in their first 20 games of the season. SI recaps how the Dodgers got there.

The eight-starter experiment was basically a big game of “what if”: What if Chad Billingsley‘s elbow doesn’t hold up? What if Ted Lilly isn’t the same pitcher he was pre-surgery? What if the best pitcher in Korea can be one of the best pitchers in the United States? What if he can’t?

Here’s another “what if”: What if the Dodgers hadn’t gone out and acquired Josh Beckett, Zack Greinke and Hyun-Jin Ryu, and entered this season with the same collection of starters they had a year ago?

Now you’re looking at Nathan Eovaldi stepping into the fifth starter’s job to replace Billingsley. Oh, wait. Eovaldi hasn’t pitched since spring training because of a shoulder issue. He’s on the 60-day disabled list (currently the Miami Marlins’ problem). Come on down, Stephen Fife.

After Fife, you’re looking at Allen Webster (who made his first major league start three days ago), Rubby De La Rosa (9.31 ERA for Boston’s Triple-A affiliate), Fernando Nieve, John Ely and perhaps Sandy Koufax as the next in line to start a game for the Dodgers.

You can thank your lucky Guggenheims that isn’t the case.

Some more bullet points for a Wednesday morning:
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Chad Billingsley to have Tommy John surgery tomorrow.

Chad BillingsleyChad Billingsley will undergo Tommy John surgery tomorrow, leaving the Dodgers without their fifth starter for the remainder of this season and likely part of 2014.

Team physician Dr. Neal ElAttrache will perform the surgery at the Kerlan Jobe Orthopedic Clinic in Los Angeles.

Billingsley elected to undergo PRP (platelet-rich plasma) injections and rehabilitation after partially tearing the ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow last August. He pitched without pain throughout the winter and into spring training until he developed elbow pain during a bullpen session four days ago. An MRI confirmed an injury to the ligament.
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Daily Distractions: Clayton Kershaw’s changing repertoire; Chad Billingsley verdict coming soon.

Clayton KershawThe Dodgers are playing the Mets in New York tonight. Clayton Kershaw is pitching.

Before you breathe that every-five-days sigh of relief that comes with seeing number 22 on the mound, consider the changes to Kershaw’s repertoire since his masterful Opening Day performance.

That day, his curveball was working so well against the San Francisco Giants, he barely needed a fastball. Kershaw threw fastballs on 52.1 percent of his pitches, a ridiculously low percentage considering he threw 94 pitches over nine innings.

In every start since, Kershaw has thrown fewer curves as a percentage of his pitches — from 19.2 percent on Opening Day to 11.3, 9.9, and finally 7.6 percent last Wednesday against the Padres. Kershaw said he didn’t have any of his breaking pitches working well that night, when he allowed five runs (three earned) in 5 ⅓ innings.

Kershaw’s fastball has gotten slightly slower, too. It averaged 93 mph on Opening Day, then 92.3, 92.8 and 92.6 mph in his last three starts, sequentially.

Is his arm about to fall off? No. But as Kershaw relies more on his fastball and slider, the danger of arguably his most dangerous pitch, the curve, is reduced. Depending on how well his entire repertoire is keeping the Mets off-balance, he might not need it.

It’s something to keep an eye on tonight.

Some bullet points for a Tuesday morning:

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